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Monday, March 08, 2010

Flaherty-gasted - Wishful Thinking -Budget 2010

To: sunletters@vancouversun.com
Cc: elibrary@conferenceboard.ca, jflaherty@fin.gc.ca, Rt Hon Stephen Harper

Dear Editor,
cc Conference Board Economics,
cc et al


Your March 5/10 Editorial on the Rt Hon S. Harper's ConFederal budget is far closer to reality than most 2010 budget commentaries. (see Conference Bd of Canada's link below)

My only suggestion would be to stick with their nominal GDP estimates (rather that the forecasted "real" number") because 1) the inflation factor is a great also-estimated unknown and 2) their revenue projections are based on the grossed-up GDP.

In total, I find it either stupendously comical or enormous effrontery that the Stewards of the Cdn Crown's Treasury & Assets expect us to believe that between Mar31/10 and March31/15 :

-Budget Revenues will grow by 38.6%
-Total Tax Revenue will grow by 36.9%
-Personal Income Tax will grow by 39.2%
-Corp Income Tax will grow by 48.9%
-E.I. premiums will grow by 60.2%
(NB some of these overlap)

While:
-Program Expenses will grow by a scant 8.4%
-Health & Social +Fiscal Transfer will rise by 23.9%
-Transfer Payments drop by 19.3%
-"other" Operating expenses increase by 24%
-the 'frozen" Expenses rise by but 5.8%
(NB these overlap too)

And that no one will notice that:
-Public Debt Charges grow by 36% --never mind if interest rates rise more than 'projected'
-and the netnet (an offset-accounting fiddle) now-called "Federal" Debt grows by 20.2%

Also that an election must be called by October 2012 (if Mr Harper's 2007 fixed-date Cda Election Act changes are still a law) .... which is the grandest type of toss-out-all-the-pending-legislation prorogation of all.

I wish we could insist on the publication of the Finance Dept's 25 year spreadsheet projections to see where these folks really are planning to take us on "the long road to Fiscal Balance" -beyond deficit-slaying, let's know the route to debt reduction.

Yours truly

rce


Vancouver Sun "Wishful Thinking"

Conference Board Budget Report

Attached Pg 33, 175, 176, 180 from FinDept's 2010 Budget Doc."Leading the Way on Jobs and Growth"

Rce
There is no shame in turning back,when you discover you're onthe wrong path. © 2006

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