Beware of "lagged" Real Estate data

Beware the actions of the simpletons who decide what is read on the Business news on TV/radio

 

This article is from USA - describing Case Shiller (widely respected housing-price comparison report) which reports April data in late June, the subject of the report

 

We have the Teranet-National Bank National House Price Composite Index (TM) in Canada - same story, great data ... just not very current .... BUT reported as "news" every month .... very misleading to do so.

This Week In Real Estate: Beware Dated Data

Jun 23 2013, 19:11  |  includes: AGNC, BAC, C, KBH, NLY, XHB

from http://seekingalpha.com

Markos Kaminis

 

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

This coming week in real estate should prove interesting and likely misleading, with a slew of dated data being measured. Five major economic reports will reach the wire, covering the real estate market, and a majority of them will measure inconsequential periods of time. That is because of all the change that has occurred over the last several months around the Fed and mortgage rates. As a result of potentially positive results, real estate relative securities may find some support. But I would use any strength to sell the stocks further, as the environment has meaningfully changed because of Fed tapering.

Of the data points of greatest market interest, the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index and the FHFA House Price Index are closely watched, but they also offer some of the longest lagged data to regularly reach the wire. Both reports will measure the month of April, though we are about to enter July. Considering that mortgage rates are significantly higher since April, the nascent trend of improving home prices might be finding some friction more recently, and that is not going to be reflected in these reports because of their age. For what it's worth, economists surveyed by Bloomberg see prices higher by approximately 1.5% (in April), as reflected by the forecast for the seasonally adjusted 20-City Index of S&P Case Shiller.

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