Some say Toronto Realty in June is "sluggish"? -IMHO, pls make every month this way!

Dear Sir/Madam

I hesitate to advance a criticism of your opinion on the June TREB results (we all have our opinions), but I think your conclusions (based on the simple facts presented on the Market Watch summary page/Media Release that you quote ) are flawed, but I attribute any shortcoming to TREB's own presentation of M/M, Y/Y & YTD comparisons that are also lacking in depth.

Your Real Estate Update

Released July 7, 2012

"The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) reported sluggish housing sales for the month of June this week. Sales in the GTA were down 5.4 per cent, while Toronto was especially hard hit at 13 per cent down."

While I appreciate that the presentation & supply of presale condos is one of your firm's primary businesses, in my view the resale market is doing just fine.

TREB SALES

The June sales at 9422 were the 4th best June of all time (June 2009, 2007, 2011 were better)

June sales were about the 12th or 13th highest monthly unit total of all time.

June 2012 was preceded by extra-ordinary sales volumes in March April & May 2012 - accelerated by first "threats of rate rises", then by "threats of qualification tightening", then by tightening of CMHC on securitization ("B" lender/originators mostly to be affected), then by the actual qualification tightening.

We/TREB just completed the 3rd best First half in units sold (2010, 2007 were better by about 800 sales)

The second Qtr of 2012 is the 2nd best 2nd quarter of all time (2010 was ~10% better at  22,707 units)

AVERAGE PRICES & YTD PRICES

Price gains in 416 and 905 (2012 over 2011) of 8%-10% are statistically amazing in real estate

- esp after a "bull market" starting in 1996 (including 10-12 month, full recovery in 2009 from any losses in the 3rd and 4th qtr of 2008 (Bear Sterns, Lehman, AIG, Merchant banks instantly becoming "real" Banks, et al, TARP, Stimulus, QE1, QE2, etc etc a.k.a. the ongoing Global Financial/Fiscal Crisis")

The Average Price in June $508,622 is the highest ave Price in any June.

The Average Price in June was the 3rd highest Monthly average price EVER (exceeded only by April 2012 and May 2012)

Seasonality predicts that (see Price Chart attached) TREB average prices decline slightly in June, again in July and again in August before climbing back to near the Spring Peak in Sept & Oct (sometimes in Nov too, only once 2007 in Dec as well)

--- Again, IMHO, a record of achievement that is not deserving of the description "sluggish"

rce

 

Robert Ede,     

Sales Representative,

RE/MAX Hallmark Realty Ltd.,

Brokerage

Oh my ... Roubini

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini discusses "greedy" bankers, the euro-zone crisis and risks facing the global economy in 2013. He speaks in Aix-en-Provence, France, with Bloomberg Television's Caroline Connan. (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch and ponder

limited (dimishing returns from too) "arrows in the quiver" & "bullets in the chamber"

Video link with Bloomberg Television's Caroline Connan.